Michigan Pulls Off Amazing Comeback But Loses to MSU in Overtime

If you had told me that Michigan would hold Michigan State to 20 points through four quarters, win the turnover battle, and have 79 less penalty yards than the Spartans, I would have figured that the Wolverines won quite comfortably.  At the same time, if you had told me that Michigan State would have nearly 400 yards compared to Michigan’s 66 (including negative rushing yards) with five minutes left in the fourth quarter, I would have assumed that the Spartans won in blowout fashion.

In reality, neither of those scenarios actually happened, as Michigan, despite being flat out dominated for the first 55 minutes of the game, scored a pair of touchdowns in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter to force overtime.  The offense finally started to play well and Tate Forcier led Michigan down the field twice for 14 straight points to tie the game.  The final touchdown was scored with only 2 seconds left on the clock, and as overtime was set to begin, it looked like a familiar story was playing out. 

Michigan State, like we have seen a few times before in this rivalry, blew a lead at the end of a game, and Michigan had a chance to win in overtime.  Unlike the past, though, the ending to this story was different.  The “Same Ol’ Sparty” magic finally ran out in overtime.  Tate Forcier was picked off to end Michigan’s possession, and even though MSU appeared to be simply setting up a field goal, Larry Caper broke a couple tackles and charged into the end zone to win the game.  The 26-20 victory means that Michigan has now lost to Michigan State in back-to-back years for the first time since the 60s.

I don’t know what was more disappointing: The fact that Michigan came back only to lose in overtime, or the fact that despite how poorly they played for the first 55 minutes of the game, changing only one play could have resulted in Michigan winning in regulation.  In that sense this was one of the weirdest games I’ve witnessed in a long time.  Michigan State was beyond dominant for most of this game, yet somehow they let Michigan hang around and make a comeback to force overtime.  In the end, though, U-M and MSU reversed their typical roles in this situation, as the Wolverines committed the costly mistake and the Spartans made a big play to win the game.

1st Quarter

• Michigan’s first blown opportunity came at the very start of the game after Stevie Brown picked off Kirk Cousins’ first pass.  Cousins was pressured on 3rd and 6, and Ryan Van Bergen hit his arm right as the ball was thrown.  That caused it to come out short, allowing Brown to make the interception.  He returned it to the MSU 14, but had he not cut back to the right, he may have been able to take it to the house.
• The reason this ended up being a blown opportunity for Michigan was because the offense quickly went three and out.  Carlos Brown lost a yard on first down, and Tate Forcier was sacked for a loss of 4 more on second down.  Forcier had Brown open out of the backfield on third down, but Brown didn’t turn around in time to make the catch.  If the pass had been completed, Brown would have only had to make a couple defenders miss to reach the end zone.  That was a big if since the pass wasn’t completed, meaning Michigan to settle for a 36-yard Jason Olesnavage field goal.
• Instead of Michigan setting the tone for this game with the interception, Michigan State had momentum from its defense and turned that into a statement drive.  The Spartans slowly but surely moved their way down the field, not even facing a single third down until they were in Michigan territory.  That’s not even the most surprising thing about this drive, though.  Despite racking up 50 — yes, 50 — penalty yards on this drive, Michigan State had little trouble getting it all back.  One big play would be taken away by a personal foul, and the Spartans would come right back with another big play.  Michigan simply couldn’t stop MSU from moving the ball through the air, allowing the Spartans to control the clock and the game in general.  Eventually Kirk Cousins scrambled for a gain of 7 yards to make it 4th and goal at the 1, and that is when Larry Caper pounded the ball into the end zone for a touchdown, capping off a 17-play drive that lasted for 10 minutes and 2 seconds.
• It seemed like it had been forever since Michigan’s offense saw the field, and they needed to put together a decent drive simply to give the defense time to rest.  Unfortunately it was more of the same from them, as they went three and out and only had the ball for 59 seconds.  Zoltan Mesko did have a 56-yard punt to pin the Spartans back at their own 11, but that was about the only positive thing that happened during Michigan’s possession.

2nd Quarter

• Michigan State converted a pair of third downs and moved into Michigan territory before the defense finally came up with a stop.  Safety Jordan Kovacs put a huge hit on Larry Caper, forcing a fumble and a loss of 6 yards on the play.  That helped Michigan force MSU to punt the ball away after moving it 42 yards.  The drive still lasted for 11 plays and took 6:31 off the clock, though.  As a result, the time of possession was beyond lopsided, and Michigan was in serious danger of barely having the ball in the entire first half if the offense didn’t wake up.
• After a pass break-up and a drop by Kelvin Grady, it looked like Michigan was headed for another three and out.  That was especially true when Tate Forcier couldn’t find anyone open and scrambled on third down.  He desperately heaved the ball downfield for Kevin Koger, who came back for it and made the catch despite having two Spartans around him.  The pass went for a gain of 41 yards, moving the chains and getting the offense going.  Forcier moved the chains again shortly after on 3rd and 9 by scrambling for a first down, and then he later found Martavious Odoms for a gain of 4 on 3rd and 2.  Michigan continued to move the ball up until Forcier was sacked by Eric Gordon on 3rd and 3.  He got rid of the ball but was called for intentional grounding, resulting in a loss of 14 on the play.  Jason Olesnavage connected on a 42-yard field goal, making this a 1-point game.
• Glenn Winston returned the proceeding kickoff to MSU’s 45-yard line, putting the Spartans in position to add to their lead before halftime.  Michigan State, like usual, slowly but surely moved down the field, and this time the defense came up with a stop when Stevie Brown took down Winston for a loss on 3rd and 1.  Michigan State ran the clock down and kicked a 26-yard field goal as time expired to take a 10-6 lead at halftime.

3rd Quarter

• Michigan had a chance to open the second half with a big drive and even possibly take the lead, but they reverted back to how they played at the start of the game, going three and out.  Tate Forcier was sacked, and Carlos Brown then lost a yard.  After an incompletion on third down, Zoltan Mesko punted the ball away to the 50-yard line.
• Similar to what happened a couple plays earlier in the game, Michigan lost contain on Kirk Cousins.  On 3rd and 8 they were unable to get much pressure on him, allowing him to take off and run for a first down.  Keith Nichol then came into the game and hit Keshawn Martin for 9 yards, moving the Spartans down to Michigan’s 27-yard line.  Glenn Winston moved the chains with a gain of 6, but that was followed up with an incompletion and no gain by Larry Caper.  Kirk Cousins was under pressure on 3rd and 10, and Craig Roh nailed him just as he threw the ball.  That led to it being way off target, allowing Donovan Warren to make the interception despite Troy Woolfolk running into him.  Warren went down at the 7-yard line and prevented MSU from increasing its lead.
• Michigan finally was able to run the ball for a positive gain, as Carlos Brown picked up 7 and 2 yards, setting up 3rd and 1.  Instead of going into the I-formation and/or simply handing the ball off to Brandon Minor, Tate Forcier ran a draw play and was stuffed for little to no gain.  The spot wasn’t great, and a measurement revealed that Michigan was literally a few inches away from the first down.  Some players seemed to want to go for it, but the punt team was sent in after a slight hesitation.  Michigan came out in a slightly different punt formation, with three gunners to the right.  Michigan State seemed to know something was up, as they came out in a safe look.  That proved to be a smart move, as Zoltan Mesko took the snap and ran to the left.  There he was tackled by multiple MSU defenders and dropped for a loss of 3 yards, giving the Spartans the ball at Michigan’s 13-yard line.

  After the game Rich Rodriguez said that Zoltan Mesko made the decision to run the ball, but something is just fishy about this whole play.  Like I said, Michigan lined up in a different formation than they usually do, as three gunners were on the right side.  I’ve seen Michigan use this formation in previous games, but it is not their usual one.  The second weird thing was that Michigan State came out in a safe return formation, almost knowing that something was up.  I know Rodriguez said it was Mesko who made the read and the decision to run, but the three blockers in front of Mesko ran to the left, knowing that he was going to roll out that way.  What’s odd about this is that Michigan hasn’t had Mesko roll out this season like he did last year due to a rules change that makes punters fair game in that situation.  The blockers usually just wait to make a block, but this time they moved to the left.

  Someone made the decision to run the rugby type of punt, which gives Mesko the option to run.  Given the situation, Mesko should have been explicitly told to punt the ball and not even think about running.  If Michigan wanted to go for it, a QB sneak probably would have moved the chains.  Running a fake punt that deep in your own territory when you only need a few inches is just incredibly stupid, and it is probably one of the worst play calls/decisions I’ve ever seen.

• With its back against the wall, Michigan’s defense came up with a huge stop.  Glenn Winston ran the ball for gains of 6 and 3 yards, making it 3rd and 1 at the 4.  That is when Brandon Graham delivered a ferocious hit on Winston for a loss of a yard.  Winston was slow to get up, which is understandable considering how big of a hit it was.  Michigan State had to settle for a 24-yard field goal, putting them up 13-6.
• Michigan technically didn’t go three and out again on its next drive, but that’s exactly what happened after Tate Forcier moved the chains on a pass to Martavious Odoms.  Brandon Minor ran for 3 yards, and then Tate Forcier was dropped for a loss of 5.  He found Junior Hemingway for a gain of 11, making it 4th and 1, but Michigan punted the ball away this time.
• Keith Nichol came in at quarterback for Michigan State and moved the Spartans into Michigan territory as the third quarter came to a close.

4th Quarter

• After an incompletion, Glenn Winston took the ball on a toss and ran down the right sideline 15 yards for a Michigan State touchdown.  It was pretty obvious that Winston was going to get the ball on a toss, as Michigan State lined up with three receivers to the left side.  That formation had been used before to run this play, as the quarterback would fake a bubble screen pass and pitch it to the other side.  That is exactly what happened on this play, and Winston ran into the end zone to make this a 20-6 game.
• Hoping to give the offense a spark, Denard Robinson came into the game at quarterback.  The first play he ran was a reverse to Martavious Odoms, who appeared to have a lane but made a bad read and ended up losing 4 yards.  Robinson then ran for a loss of 2, and on third down he was sacked for a loss of 12.
• Michigan State took over with good field position, but Brandon Graham made a huge play on 3rd and 11.  Kirk Cousins was scrambling to avoid pressure, and Graham caught him from behind and forced a fumble.  The ball bounced around and Obi Ezeh eventually recovered it, giving Michigan the ball at MSU’s 46-yard line.
• Michigan immediately made a move after the turnover, as Tate Forcier found Junior Hemingway for a gain of 9 yards.  Michigan State was penalized for a late hit on the play, even though Hemingway wasn’t completely down when he took the hit.  Regardless, the penalty moved Michigan all the way down to the 22-yard line.  On the very next play Forcier found Darryl Stonum for a gain of 10.  Stonum tried to fight for extra yardage and had the ball knocked out of his hands by Eric Gordon.  Greg Jones picked it up and returned it to the MSU 27.
• Michigan State went three and out after a couple short runs and an incompletion, but Michigan followed suit with three straight incomplete passes on its next drive.
• Michigan’s defense once again forgot to contain the quarterback two plays into the Spartans’ next drive.  Kirk Cousins took off for a gain of 41 yards, putting MSU on Michigan’s 38-yard line.  Glenn Winston then ran for 1 yard on back-to-back carries, and on third down Cousins found B.J. Cunningham for 5 yards, making it 4th and 3.  Michigan caught a break here, as MSU decided to go for it on fourth down.  A field goal would have made it a three-possession game, but MSU was going into the wind and it was raining on and off, making the field wet.  Even so, during halftime Brett Swenson appeared to make one kick from around 50 yards at that end, and this attempt would have been from around 48.  Regardless, MSU went for it and Kirk Cousins’ pass to Keshawn Martin sailed over his head and was incomplete.
• Michigan took over with 4:47 left in the game and had to start making something happen.  Tate Forcier did just that on first down, scrambling away from pressure and somehow finding Junior Hemingway, who made an outstanding catch in heavy coverage, for a gain of 8 yards.  Following an incompletion on second down, Forcier hit a wide open Darryl Stonum on the left sideline on 3rd and 2.  Stonum had a big cushion between him and the MSU player defending him, and he switched field and started running to the right.  His speed allowed him to outrun the defenders chasing after him, and he ran into the end zone for a 60-yard touchdown.  Just like that Michigan cut the lead down to one touchdown.
• Keith Nichol found Mark Dell for a gain of 7, and Larry Caper ran for a yard on second down.  That set up a critical 3rd and 2 that could have ended Michigan’s hopes of a comeback if MSU converted it.  Thanks to Jordan Kovacs, that didn’t happen.  Kovacs was in the backfield as soon as Caper got the ball and delivered a big hit, knocking him down for a loss of a yard.  Greg Mathews caught Michigan State’s punt and went out of bounds at his own 8-yard line, meaning Michigan had 2:53 to go 92 yards to send this game to overtime.
• Tate Forcier showed how clutch he can be under pressure by methodically picking apart Michigan State’s defense on this drive both through the air and on the ground.  A roughing the passer penalty also helped Michigan out early in this drive, moving the Wolverines closer to midfield.  Forcier continued to pick apart the defense, finding Martavious Odoms for 9 yards and then running for 13 more.  He hooked up with Stonum again for a gain of 12, moving the ball down to the MSU 24.  Back-to-back incomplete passes thrown in Greg Mathews’ direction (including one that went over a wide open Mathews in the end zone) made it 3rd and 10, and Forcier escaped pressure and ran for 13 to move the chains.

  The rain was already falling, but the intensity of it picked up, making for the worst weather we had seen all day at the worst possible time.  To make matters even worse, Forcier was gassed, but he played through it and scrambled for a gain of 2 yards on the next play.  He fumbled the ball out of bounds at the end of the run, stopping the clock.  On the following play he dropped the snap and proceeded to throw a dangerous pass into coverage.  It fell to the ground for an incompletion, making it 3rd and goal with 8 seconds left.  On the most important play of the game, Forcier took the snap, rolled to the right, and found an open Roy Roundtree in the back of the end zone for a touchdown with only 2 seconds left on the clock.  Jason Olesnavage made the extra point, tying the game up at 20.  Michigan State took a knee to run the final couple of seconds off the clock to send the game to overtime.

Overtime

• Tate Forcier got overtime started by running for a gain of 5 yards.  He then found Martavious Odoms for a gain of 7 to move the chains.  After rushing for 4 yards on first down, Brandon Minor got a carry and went for 1, making it 3rd and 5.  Forcier rolled to the right and forced a pass into heavy coverage in the end zone, and the ball was deflected and eventually ended up in the hands of a diving Chris L. Rucker for an interception.  You just can’t make throws like that in this situation, but Forcier was trying to make a play and paid for it.
• Just needing a field goal to win the game, Michigan State did its best to prevent that from happening when Glenn Winston fumbled a pitch, resulting in a loss of 9 yards.  It was the same play he scored a touchdown on earlier in the game, but this time the pitch from Keith Nichol went through his hands.  Nichol got that yardage back on the next play by hitting B.J. Cunningham for a gain of 9 yards, making it 3rd and 8.  In this situation I expected MSU to just run the ball to set up a game-winning field goal attempt, and that is exactly what they did.  There would be no field goal, though, as Larry Caper took the handoff, plowed over Troy Woolfolk, ran by Jonas Mouton, and found the end zone for a 23-yard touchdown run.  Michigan State won 26-20, saved its season, and made sure that the Paul Bunyan Trophy won’t leave East Lansing for at least another year.

There’s not much else to say about this game that hasn’t already been discussed.  All I will add is that this was a wake-up call for the entire team.  Yes, Michigan could have won this game and played amazing in the final five minutes to send it to overtime, but there are visible problems on both sides of the ball.

Although the defense played much better in the second half, it has some huge issues.  Outside of the defensive line, Donovan Warren, Stevie Brown, and Craig Roh, I don’t have much faith in the other defensive players.  Some of the linebackers looked awful both in tackling and their pursuit angles, and don’t even get me started on the secondary.  Part of it is a lack of talent and trying to compensate for that, but the coaches really need to get it together, because it is obvious after Saturday that Michigan is going to struggle to win shootouts against good defenses. 

Michigan’s offense was basically completely ineffective until the final five minutes of the game when Michigan State sort of shifted to a prevent defense.  The run game was useless, and Forcier was under pressure on almost every play.  It is evident that losing David Molk was a bigger blow to the offensive line than most anticipated, as David Moosman is still having snapping issues and the position changes have made the right side of the line extremely sketchy.

Michigan will have a week to iron out these problems, as it will take a complete team effort to win at Iowa next Saturday, especially since it is a night game (8 p.m. start on ABC).  Though the Hawkeyes have shown they are beatable by playing down to their opponents, they will be pumped up for a primetime game against Michigan. 

What scares me the most about the Iowa game is that Michigan State really does not have a good defense.  Iowa does, and when you consider how much Michigan struggled against MSU, what does that mean for next Saturday?  Iowa’s offense isn’t explosive, but it gets the job done.  To win this game, Michigan is going to have to play strong defensively, figure out how to run the ball again, and hope that Tate Forcier makes plays all game like he did on those final two drives of the fourth quarter this past Saturday.  It won’t be easy, but Michigan needs to forget about the disappointing game in East Lansing and get ready to rebound and win at Iowa.