That Just Happened: Toledo Upsets Michigan 13-10

By Sean · Sunday, October 12, 2008 · 2:50 PM |  Share | Leave a Comment 

Despite how bad Michigan has played at times this season, everybody figured that the Toledo game would provide a much needed win for the Wolverines. After all, Toledo was 1-4 going into this game and Michigan was 24-0 all-time against MAC schools. No matter how bad Michigan plays, they should at least be able to beat Toledo, right? Well, not so much.

Toledo was held to 13 points (7 of which came from an interception return for a touchdown), even though their offense moved the ball well the entire game. Needing only a pair of touchdowns to win, you would have thought Michigan could at least pull that off. However, the offense looked as bad as ever and once again made plenty of mistakes. All of the mistakes put Michigan in a terrible situation where they trailed 13-10 with only seconds left on the clock. K.C. Lopata had to kick a 26-yard field goal to send the game to overtime, but he hooked it to the left, clinching the upset victory for the Rockets.

Normally I would discuss the previous game and explain every single little thing that happened in regular paragraph form, but I’m going to try something different today. I am instead going to go through each quarter and talk about each drive on its own. I don’t know if I’ll continue to do this the rest of the season, but I’m going to try this out so you guys can read about what happened in a more organized way.

1st Quarter

• Michigan went three and out to start the game after Sam McGuffie ran for 0 and -2 yards, and Steven Threet threw an incomplete pass intended for Kevin Koger.
• Toledo picked up three first downs before the Michigan defense finally got a stop. On 4th and 1, Toledo tried to fake the punt by doing a direct snap to someone in the backfield, but the snap hit off of the player and Brandon Harrison recovered the ball at the Toledo 33-yard line.
• McGuffie ran the ball four straight times to get the ball down to the 11. Kevin Grady then came in on 3rd and 1 and ran for 5 yards. After McGuffie got the ball again, Threet tried to find a receiver in the end zone and had nobody open. He should have just thrown the ball away, but instead he tried to force it in and got picked off by Tyrrell Herbert, who returned the interception 100 yards for a touchdown.
• Michigan picked up one first down on its next drive before punting again.
• Toledo went three and out.
• Threet hit McGuffie for 9 yards, Tony Clemons for 15, and finally Brandon Minor for 27 and the touchdown. Minor caught the pass in the middle of the field and fumbled the ball just as he was crossing the goal line. It looked like the ball came loose before he actually scored, but even if that would have been the call, Greg Mathews recovered the fumble. The play was reviewed anyways, and the call was upheld, meaning the game was tied at 7-7.

2nd Quarter

• Michigan started at their own 46 after a Toledo punt and a personal foul penalty on the Rockets. The Wolverines moved the ball on the ground and didn’t even attempt a pass on this drive. McGuffie kept the drive alive by barely picking up a first down on 4th and 1, and then Threet took off for 13 yards and drew a personal foul penalty. The drive stalled at this point and K.C. Lopata came in and kicked a 26-yard field goal, putting Michigan on top 10-7.
• Toledo moved the ball with ease by doing only a couple different things. They threw a screen pass or did a bootleg and Michigan simply couldn’t stop them. Toledo got all the way down to the Michigan 3-yard line thanks to this strategy before Michigan finally did make a stop. That stop would turn out to be huge since Toledo’s field goal attempt from 21 yards was no good, keeping Michigan ahead for the time being.
• After both teams went three and out, Michigan finished off the half by just letting the clock run out. McGuffie had runs of 9 and 11 yards, giving Michigan a chance to try to do something before the end of the half. However, a holding penalty a couple plays later moved Michigan back too much, so they just let the clock run out.

3rd Quarter

• Toledo started off the second half using the strategy of throwing short passes that moved the ball slowly but effectively. This paid off as the Rockets went down the field and kicked a 29-yard field goal to tie the game up at 10.
• Nick Sheridan came into the game, leaving everyone in the crowd wondering why Threet wasn’t playing. At the time, most of us just figured that Rich Rodriguez had lost it, but it turns out that Threet injured his elbow before the end of the first half. Sheridan’s first drive of the game produced two first downs (one was a 10-yard run by Sheridan) before Zoltan Mesko came in to punt once the drive stalled.
• The Rockets moved the ball into Michigan territory, but Michigan’s defense stepped it up to force a punt.

4th Quarter

• Nick Sheridan was intercepted by Tyrrell Herbert on the first play of this quarter. The pass should have been caught by Toney Clemons, but he let it bounce right off his hands. The ball bounced right to Herbert, who pulled it in with one hand for his second interception of the game.
• The Rockets took over at the Michigan 40 and were eventually forced to attempt a 48-yard field goal. The kick went exactly 48 yards, as it bounced off of the crossbar and went through the uprights. Had the kick been only a few inches shorter, it would have bounced back, but instead it went through and gave the Rockets a 13-10 lead.
• Michigan went three and out but got the ball back a few minutes later after Toledo had to punt.
• The offense finally started to move the ball, but just when good things started to happen, Sheridan was picked off again, this time by Mark Singer. The pass itself was thrown way too high, and although Toney Clemons could have made the catch, he let it bounce off his hands again. It was very similar to Sheridan’s first pick; the only difference was that the pass was much worse this time around.
• Toledo moved the ball down to the Michigan 32-yard line and went for it on 4th and 2. There was only a minute and a half or so left, so a first down would have essentially ended the game. Thankfully, Michigan came up with the stop and got the ball back with more than enough time to get in field goal range.
• After moving the ball up to its 48-yard line, Michigan was faced with 4th and 5. Sheridan completed a pass to Greg Mathew, who made the catch despite getting hit immediately. The spot may have been a tad generous, but the only thing that mattered was that Michigan got the first down, keeping any hopes of a victory alive.
• On the very next play, Sheridan threw a perfect pass down the middle of the field and McGuffie made the catch. As soon as McGuffie hauled the throw in he got absolutely drilled by a defender and had to leave the game with an injury. Even so, the great play put Michigan on the 18-yard line with 25 seconds left, giving them a chance to tie and possibly even win the game.
• Michael Shaw got the ball and ran for 9 yards. Michigan had to use its last timeout with 18 seconds left since Shaw was tackled inbounds and short of the first down.
• It was at this point that I hoped Michigan would just move the ball to the middle of the field, spike it, and kick the field goal. However, they decided to try for the win, which I have no problem with. Sheridan wisely threw the ball out of the back of the end zone since no one was open. Although I still wanted Michigan to move the ball to the middle of the field, it would have been too risky now since there were only about 13 seconds left on the clock. Considering that, Michigan tried to score a TD, but Sheridan once again threw the ball away.
• With Michigan now having 4th down, it was time to kick a field goal. K.C. Lopata came out and attempted the kick from 26 yards away on the right hash. I had a bad feeling before the kick was attempted simply because of how inconsistent Lopata had been all season long. Unfortunately, that bad feeling became a reality for all Michigan fans. Lopata hooked the kick just outside of the left upright, meaning the kick was no good and Toledo had won the game. The Rockets took a knee to run out the clock and to clinch the stunning 13-10 upset.

This loss ranks right up there with Appalachian State in terms of the shock factor. However, it hurts Michigan much more simply because there is absolutely no chance the Wolverines will make a bowl game. When you look at the schedule, there’s actually a good chance that Michigan may not win another game if they continue to play this badly. I think it’s safe to say that Michigan’s consecutive bowl and consecutive winning seasons streaks are both going to come to an end, just as the Wolverines’ undefeated streak against MAC schools did yesterday.

Michigan’s 9-game winning streak against Penn State will also likely come to an end next Saturday. The Nittany Lions are now ranked 3rd in the nation after blowing out Wisconsin in Madison, and you can bet they will be hungry for a win over Michigan. Considering Penn State has lost so many times in a row to Michigan, my guess is that this game will get really ugly. Penn State is probably going to stick it to the Wolverines since they finally will be able to. As much as I’d like to say that things can’t get much worse, they can and probably will. We’ll find out next Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN.