From Carr to Rodriguez: What a Year It’s Been

There has been a lot of talk recently in Ann Arbor and on the Internet about what Michigan’s most important game is this season. Most argue that it is Utah as starting the season with a win is a must. Others say that Notre Dame is more important because, well, it’s embarrassing to lose Charlie Weis.

Throughout the state many will tell you that the Michigan State game is by far the most important as Michigan has to continue their dominance of the Spartans. A loss to the Spartans could cause recruiting to swing in their favor and give Mark Dantonio the momentum he needs to build MSU into a credible program. Finally, a few fans think the Ohio State game is the most important because it is the Ohio State game. There’s no doubt that a win over the Buckeyes would be amazing, but realistically how likely is that?

Opinions will differ on this subject and will probably change throughout the season, but for me there is no game more important than Utah. I would agree completely with the arguments made for the other games above, and in the long run beating someone like MSU may be more important than opening the season with a win. However, for right now perception is everything, and a loss certainly doesn’t help Rich Rodriguez build this program any quicker.

The last year has really been the biggest roller coaster ride perception-wise for Michigan in a long time. Last season we had hopes that Michigan would make a run at a national title, and by the afternoon of the first day of the season we were left speechless by one of the biggest upsets in college football history. With one blocked field goal (along with everything else that went wrong during that game) Michigan became a national embarrassment and discussion quickly turned from championships to who should replace Lloyd Carr.

Even a week later there was still some hope that the season could be turned around, but then Oregon came to Ann Arbor and destroyed Michigan. By then fans hoped that the 2007 season could be salvaged into something respectable, and up until the final two games of the season it looked like it was going to be salvaged into something much more. Then, in typical Michigan fashion, the Wolverines came out and laid an egg against Wisconsin and forgot how to play offense against Ohio State.

Even with the four losses U-M still got a bid to the Capital One Bowl to play Florida. Hardly anyone, myself included, believed Michigan had a legitimate shot at winning in Lloyd Carr’s final game, but we were in for quite a surprise. Michigan’s offense came out in the spread for the majority of the game and picked apart Florida’s defense. Had it not been for a couple of Mike Hart fumbles that game could have easily been a blowout, but it still was the perfect sendoff for Lloyd Carr.

In between the OSU and Florida games, Carr announced he was going to retire and Michigan began the search for their next head coach. The coaching search was just as up and down as the 2007 season as one week it appeared Kirk Ferentz was going to get the job and then another week Les Miles was a lock. In the end, though, Michigan lucked out and was able to snatch Rich Rodriguez away from West Virginia, meaning a complete overhaul to the football program was coming.

Once Rodriguez took over officially, only 1 assistant coach from Carr’s staff remained. On top of that, Michigan lost a ton of players to the NFL and a few others for different reasons. The most notable in the “different reasons” category were Ryan Mallett, who transferred to Arkansas, and Justin Boren, who cried his way to Ohio State. Mallett left in respectable fashion, but Boren went to Columbus complaining that the new coaching staff lacked family values. Those comments provided opposing fans and the media with endless fodder to attack Rich Rodriguez. It’s not like they needed any extra fuel for the fire as West Virginia had provided plenty in their quest to get Rodriguez to pay his $4 million buyout.

Even with all of the negative press Rodriguez got, there was an almost equal amount of good things to say about the new Michigan program. The first thing that comes to mind is strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis. He instantly became a fan favorite in a Chuck Norris-like way thanks to his always intense attitude and gravelly voice that makes you want to run through a wall after listening to him for more than a few minutes. Barwis eventually drew the media’s attention and received lots of national and local coverage.

Aside from Barwis, the other biggest source for positive press was the new program Rich Rodriguez is creating. Whether it is the overhaul of the strength and conditioning program or quicker improvement or just a better attitude, all three of those things provide hope for fans that are thinking 2008 will be an average season. Although Michigan doesn’t have that great of talent at many positions (mainly on offense), this could very well be a team that doesn’t need talent to win games. If they have the heart and drive to win then they can be victorious regardless of the fact that the starting quarterback will likely be a former walk-on.

Until Saturday afternoon rolls around, all we have to go on is perception. I would say the national perception toward this football program is equally negative and positive because of all of the things I have gone over in this post. From the loss to Appalachian State to the blowout by Oregon to getting dominated by Ohio State, the old Michigan perception was pretty damaged. Although there have been many positive things said about the new Michigan, the current expectation for most non-Michigan fans is that the Wolverines will open the season with a loss and finish with a record somewhere around .500. Some believe it will be a little better and others think it will be worse.

With only “what if” talk right now as a Rich Rodriguez-coached Michigan team has never taken the field, U-M’s perception is very unstable. It doesn’t necessarily matter what pundits and analysts and opposing fans out there think, but perception matters when it comes to recruiting. For that reason it is vital that Michigan immediately puts any negative thoughts in their rearview mirror on Saturday, and the only way to do that is with a victory.

Again, in the long-term the Utah game could turn out to mean absolutely nothing, but sitting here one day before the season starts, it is by far the most important game. Michigan’s potential future quarterback, Tate Forcier, will be visiting, and who knows what a loss could do to his recruitment. The same can be said for other important recruits that will be in attendance and for the ones simply watching the game on a TV at home. Not only would a loss make Michigan look bad in their eyes, but it gives opposing coaches more negative recruiting material.

To the same token, a misstep to start the season would really put a damper on the beginning of the Rich Rodriguez era in general. If Michigan finished the year by winning 11 straight games or simply by beating Ohio State then I would say the mindset would quickly change, but for right now at least, that misstep can’t happen.

My opinion on this will undoubtedly change throughout the season as different teams line up against Michigan, but there is no better way to start the season than with a win. Utah is no joke and tomorrow’s game won’t be easy by any means. If the Utes were to leave Ann Arbor victorious then I don’t think anyone would be surprised. After all, Michigan’s offense isn’t exactly expected to put up a lot of points, so Utah winning wouldn’t be a shock at all.

When Michigan takes the field tomorrow afternoon, we should get an idea of what to expect the rest of this season. It won’t be a game that tells us exactly what kind of team this will be, but if they were to get blown out or something like that then I doubt anybody would be getting their hopes up for the final 11 games of the regular season. At the same time, if Michigan were to come out of this game with an impressive victory, that perception I was talking about starts to shift greatly into the positive direction. Again, one game can only tell you so much, but a win certainly tells you what you would rather hear.

Going into Saturday, my only hope is that Michigan wins. Would I like to see the offense run smoothly? Of course. However, the offense can get 10 total yards and I won’t care if the final score is in Michigan’s favor. The same can be said for every game this season, but for now, a win is needed to set the precedent for the remainder of the season. And besides, no Michigan fans want to see a repeat of last year’s opening game. By that I don’t mean national embarrassment or an upset, but a loss. That would just be a bad way to begin the season, especially if it happens 2 years in a row.