The Importance of September 16th

By Sean · Monday, August 21, 2006 · 11:42 AM |  Share | Leave a Comment 

Everyone knows the significance of the Michigan versus Notre Dame game each season. It usually comes in early September, and can either get your season off to a great start or leave it scorned with a tough loss. For the last two meetings, Michigan has been the one with the loss, whereas Notre Dame has got the victory.

Notre Dame used momentum of defeating Michigan in the Big House to have a very good first season under Charlie Weis. There’s no doubt that the win on the road helped ND achieve some confidence for the rest of the year.

Things won’t be any different in 2006. There was a great article written yesterday on GoBlueWolverine.com. The article talks about how the entire season rests on the result of the Notre Dame game. I don’t necessarily agree with him on all points, such as when he says this:

If Michigan comes out of South Bend 3-0 and proceeds to tank the rest of the season, I will still smile and return next season for more. If they lose, I will find another activity for my fall Saturdays. Somehow I suspect I’m not alone.

I think you may have suspected wrong on that one paragraph. If Michigan does start off 3-0 and proceeds to lose, I don’t know, let’s say 5 games during the rest of the season, then I will not be smiling. And if Michigan loses, then I will not give up all hope and forget about them, what would be the point in that?

Aside from that, the overall point of the article is very good. Basically, he’s saying that the feel of the 2006 season depends on the outcome of the Notre Dame game. I agree 100% there, in fact, I was just discussing that with someone this past weekend.

There are two real paths that 2006 could go down. Assuming that the Wolverines are 2-0 (if not then there’s bigger problems to worry about) when they visit South Bend, let’s take a look at the two potential scenarios.

Scenario A – Michigan Wins
This is the ideal choice for any Michigan fan. No fan likes to see the Wolverines lose, especially when it happens to a rival like Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will be coming off of two very tough games (@ Georgia Tech, vs Penn State) and will be ranked near the top of the polls if they survive both of the matches. Notre Dame will be cocky, they will be confident, and undoubtedly they will be predicting a win over the maize and blue.

Michigan really needs to get ahead quickly and never look back. Piling on the points at the start of the game will set a tempo that would be hard to overcome. Notre Dame did that exact thing last season in Ann Arbor. They got off to a quick start, scoring on the first drive with little trouble, and then took a 14-3 lead into the locker rooms at halftime. Michigan did have its chances to comeback and win, but they never did, showing that the early lead helped ND to victory.

So, it’s the night of September 16th, and Michigan fans everywhere are celebrating the huge victory. What exactly does this mean when looking down the road to the rest of the 2006 season? Well, for one it gets a monkey off of Lloyd Carr’s back in two ways. The first is that it would be a win in the first road game of the season, which hasn’t happened since 1999 when Michigan beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. The second is that it would provide Carr and Michigan with a win over two of the rivals that have owned us in recent years. In the last 2 seasons, Michigan is a combined 0-4 against Notre Dame and Ohio State. Getting a win over Notre Dame would snap that losing streak and finally give Michigan fans a chance to have the bragging rights.

The Notre Dame win wouldn’t just get a monkey off of Lloyd Carr’s back, but would provide a huge amount of confidence and momentum for the rest of the season. In my mind, a reason that Michigan hasn’t had a great season, where they have only a couple instead of a few losses, is because each year they lose a game early-on. Losing at the start of the season downs your team and knocks them off the ladder. Beating a team like ND would set pace for a successful, double digit-win season.

Scenario B – Michigan Losses
As much as you don’t want to think about this happening, you have to have realized by now that this is more likely. I don’t want to sound negative, but the odds are not in Michigan’s favor. Now, that doesn’t mean that Michigan will lose; I’m just saying that it’s going to be the more-favored possibility.

This loss wouldn’t be as much of a surprise compared to year’s past. It’s the trend for Michigan football. Lose to Notre Dame, an arch-rival, and lose the road opener. Imagining this happening would be horrible, but by now, I’m used to it, which tells you the state the football program is in. If the Wolverines are not victorious over ND, then I will not give up hope entirely for the rest of the 2006 season, but let’s just say, my expectations will certainly be knocked down a few levels.

There will still be 9 regular season games left where Michigan could be the winner. That’s the good thing about playing ND so early on in the schedule. A loss and you could rebound for an 11-win season. That’s also unlikely, but could happen.

Overall, if Michigan does end up losing to Notre Dame, then it’ll be a tough hole to dig themselves out of, but all hope is not lost.

As you can see, the tempo of the 2006 season really rests on this game. A win and everyone still has great confidence in you, and a loss provides you with a route to another average season. I’d say the title of that article linked above sums it all up: “The 2006 Season Begins and Ends in South Bend.”

On September 16th, I just hope “Scenario A” is the one that happens, because then the Wolverines can finally get over the hump and be down the road for a great season.